Engagements
Value Creation Assessment
Full operational diligence during the acquisition process. EBITDA durability analysis, thesis validation, value creation roadmap with capture scenarios. Designed for deals where the operational reality determines whether the investment thesis holds.
Signal Detection Brief
Pre-LOI assessment using public sources. Employee reviews, permit history, customer complaint velocity, competitive positioning, leadership changes. Identifies thesis risks before committing to exclusivity.
Portfolio Value Creation
Post-close operational assessment for owned businesses. Process variance diagnosis across locations, standardization roadmap, EBITDA recovery quantification with Monte Carlo validation. Designed for platforms where operational inconsistency is leaving money on the table.
Case Studies
Air Pros USA — Retrospective Analysis
PE-backed HVAC roll-up. $250M+ debt, $25M EBITDA. Filed Chapter 11 March 2025, liquidated September 2025. This retrospective demonstrates what prospective diligence would have identified: integration velocity exceeding capacity by 4–8×, unsustainable capital structure at 10× leverage, leadership transition during peak operational complexity. The signals were visible two years before bankruptcy—in public sources, before anyone opened a data room.
Regional Auto Group — Platform Value Creation
Four-store regional dealership platform. $3.8M annual GP variance identified across locations operating with corporate infrastructure but store-level process autonomy. Analysis quantified recovery opportunity by store and function, validated against NADA and Foureyes benchmarks, stress-tested via 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation. Implementation roadmap with $361K investment, 480% expected Year 1 ROI, 100% probability of positive returns at modeled parameters.
Engagement Materials
Data Request Protocol
Standard documentation requirements for full assessment. 24–36 months monthly financials, customer revenue detail, org chart with compensation, key contracts.
Sample Deliverable Structure
Annotated outline showing memorandum structure with section descriptions and sample outputs.
Available upon request.